Major Avenue confidence in Trump economic system is up, even amongst Democrats 

It is usually mentioned that the financial actuality on Major Avenue does not match the temper on Wall Avenue, however proper now small enterprise house owners are matching the market with elevated confidence after a rocky begin to 2025.

After a major decline in small enterprise confidence within the second quarter amid President Trump’s tariffs coverage pronouncements, almost half of small enterprise house owners (46%) now say that the economic system is “wonderful” or “good”, up from 30% in Q2, in line with the quarterly CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Enterprise Survey.

The improved sentiment extends throughout celebration traces, with 24% of small enterprise house owners who’re Democrats describing the economic system pretty much as good or wonderful, up from 8% in Q2. There was an analogous improve amongst Republican small enterprise house owners, with 67% having a constructive view of the economic system, 15 factors increased than within the earlier quarter.

The CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Enterprise Confidence Index moved as much as 56, from 51 the earlier quarter — which had been Trump’s lowest mark on this survey aside from in the course of the Covid outbreak of his first time period. The most important transfer was amongst Democrats, amongst whom sentiment improved from 33 to 41 the earlier quarter. Republicans confidence was regular quarter over quarter at 68, whereas Independents, at 47, had been near the earlier quarter (45).

“Small enterprise house owners who determine as Democrats report the biggest improve in sentiment,” mentioned Sam Gutierrez, Senior Analysis Scientist at SurveyMonkey. “They’re much extra optimistic about enterprise circumstances in contrast with the earlier quarter. Optimism additionally seems to be rising amongst Republican enterprise house owners: fewer now assume the nation is heading right into a recession.”

The survey viewers is a consultant pattern of small enterprise group within the U.S., which skews conservative in political identification. The net ballot was performed by SurveyMonkey from July 7-10, 2025 amongst a nationwide pattern of 1,900 self-identified small enterprise house owners ages 18 and up.

The improved sentiment has translated into increased approval for President Trump, with confidence amongst small enterprise house owners over his dealing with of the job of the presidency rising from 48% in Q2 to 57% this quarter, although the partisan divide stays broad, with 90% of Republicans expressing assist and solely 18% of Democrats.

By most simple measures of enterprise confidence, the numbers are up: 44% describe present enterprise circumstances pretty much as good, up from 36% the earlier quarter. Over half (51%) of small companies anticipate gross sales to extend within the subsequent 12 months, up from 41% in Q2. Twenty-eight % say they may improve headcount within the subsequent 12 months, up from 22% in Q2.

On the similar time, an rising proportion of small enterprise house owners, particularly among the many Gen Z and millennial generations, are making extra use of AI and rapidly discovering a constructive influence on enterprise, and anticipate much less hiring over time because of this.

Financial fears haven’t gone away solely. In reality, issues about recession and tariffs stay excessive among the many majority of small enterprise house owners. However they’re going down. Those that assume the nation is headed for a recession now stand at 61%, down from 70% in Q2. Fewer small enterprise house owners say they’ve been affected by tariffs or will likely be sooner or later, down from 66% in Q2 to 59% now.

Much less small enterprise house owners now cite tariffs as their largest threat, down from 17% in Q2 to 10% this quarter. Inflation stays small enterprise house owners’ largest concern, with simply over one in 5 (22%) citing rising costs, adopted by shopper demand (18%).

“Small enterprise house owners are feeling safer total. As fears over the influence of tariffs subside, we’re seeing an upswing in enterprise sentiment after a pointy decline final quarter,” Gutierrez mentioned.

However as fears over commerce coverage development decrease, the concerns about shopper demand on Major Avenue match a Wall Avenue fear. Goldman Sachs, for instance, expects the U.S. economic system to sluggish notably resulting from tariffs and inflation, and their influence on shopper spending. “Even a one-time value improve will eat into actual revenue, at a time when shopper spending tendencies already look shaky,” Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a current observe to shoppers. 

The survey information is near the place it was in Q1, after Trump’s reelection however earlier than he unveiled the tariff insurance policies which rocked the market and led to widespread uncertainty amongst companies in April. Now, views on authorities coverage are also trending in a constructive course:

Final quarter, 44% of enterprise house owners anticipated authorities laws within the subsequent 12 months to have a unfavorable influence on their enterprise. That is now all the way down to 36%.

Views of commerce coverage have additionally improved, with 40% of enterprise house owners saying it can have a unfavorable influence over the following yr, down from 51% who held this view final quarter.

And as President Trump handed his signature tax and spending invoice, the proportion of small enterprise house owners who mentioned tax coverage over the following yr can be a unfavorable declined from 37% to 32%.

Even because the numbers amongst small enterprise house owners enhance, assist for tariff coverage stays sharply divided alongside partisan traces. Eighty-one % of Republican respondents assist Trump’s tariffs coverage, whereas 87% of Democrats oppose it. Small enterprise house owners who determine as independents are a lot nearer to Democrats on the tariffs situation, with 71% saying they’re towards it.